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COVID-19 By the Numbers

Many Americans aren't taking the current situation seriously yet. Is it real? YES!

Is it temporary? That depends on how you define temporary.
It WILL be around for months, probably a couple of years.

Many epidemiologists are likening COVID-19 to the Spanish Flu of 1918. There are similarities, and scientists can use that event to predict where we're heading with intelligent guesses.

The Spanish Flu infected a third of the world's population.

The Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2~3% (estimated).

The good news: We are smarter now. We better understand how the virus is transmitted and how to slow its progression and "flatten the curve" to prevent healthcare systems from overloading.

The bad news: back in 1918 we were riding horses. Ford's popular Model A didn't start production until 1927.We also didn't fly across the country let alone to other continents. COVID-19 has wings!

Today, there are roughly 330 million Americans.

If a third of us are infected, that's 110 million total cases in the U.S (over time).

CDC: "In the coming months, most of the U.S. population will be exposed to this virus."

Dr. Steven Choi, chief quality officer at Yale New Haven Hospital: “There are multiple models — none of which is entirely right or wrong — that project an infection rate in Connecticut of 30 to 40% of the population

Connecticut's highly respected State Epidemiologist Matthew Cartter (MD, MPH):
"70% of residents will eventually get it"

Ireland Prime Minister Leo Varadkar:
"Up to 50 or 60 per cent (of the population) could get the virus"

German Chancellor Angela Merkel:
"60 to 70 percent of people in Germany will become infected with the coronavirus"

True, elected officials aren't doctors or scientists, but their advisors certainly are. I doubt they would say these things if they hadn't been told by someone with appropriate credentials.

The highly respected Dr. Anthony Fauci at the CDC conservatively estimates a mortality rate of 1%. It could end up being higher. With many mild cases going unreported, we won't ever really know for sure.

Do the very simple math:
330,000,000 / 3 X 0.01 = 1,100,000
330,000,000 Americans in the population
divided by 3 for number of infections if a third of us get the virus
multiplied by 0.01 for a 1% mortality rate based on Dr. Fauci

IF WE DON'T REACT INTELLIGENTLY AND QUICKLY:
Over a million Americans could die from COVID-19
.

Sadly, this is a conservative estimate.

To put this in perspective, 420,000 Americans (military+civilian) died in World War II.

COVID-19 will kill many more Americans than the war. Do you get it now? This is big.

Don't like my assumptions? Pick your own from the chart below:

INFECTION
TOTAL
MORTALITY RATES
RATE
CASES
0.5%
1%
1.5%
2%
  (MILLIONS)
U.S. DEATHS (MILLIONS)
10%
33M
0.2M
0.3M
0.5M
0.7M
20%
66M
0.3M
0.7M
1.0M
1.3M
30%
99M
0.5M
1.0M
1.5M
2.0M
40%
132M
0.7M
1.3M
2.0M
2.6M
50%
165M
0.8M
1.7M
2.5M
3.3M
60%
198M
1.0M
2.0M
3.0M
4.0M
70%
231M
1.2M
2.3M
3.5M
4.6M

EXAMPLE of how the table works in yellow:
Current U.S. population = 330 million (330,000,000)
With a 30% infection rate expect 99 million (99,000,000) cases.
With a 1% mortality rate expect 1 million (1,000,000) deaths.

We are in for a tough time. Be smart. Be prepared. Stay alive.
Social distancing is critical to changing the outcome.

What you should do:
• STAY HOME.
• Wash your hands.
• Wear a glove when pumping gas and using ATMs or in-store terminals.
• Throw gloves out without touching the surfaces you used.
• Be careful with anything received by mail or delivered.
• This bug can live on cardboard for over a day, maybe two.
• When you have to shop, buy more and go less often.
• Do not congregate: stay a yard (or 2) away from others.
• Stay healthy: go for a walk, drink plenty of fluids.
• Watch news daily to say current but don't obsess.
• Stay sane: enjoy whatever hobbies you can, read.
• I'm making sourdough bread to help keep myself sane!

What government should do / have done:
• Close all schools, colleges, universities, etc.
• Close all daycare facilities.
• Close all places of worship.
• Close all theaters, music venues, art galleries.
• Close all libraries and senior centers.
• Close all gyms, yoga studios, pools, etc.
• Close all sit-down restaurants, bars, pubs, etc.
  (drive-through windows can stay open for now)
• Close all barber shops, hair and nail salons
• Postpone in-person primaries and elections

What qualifies me to offer advice? Background:
• Emergency Preparedness Instructor, West Hartford, CT
• Emergency Medical Technician, State of PA
• Emergency Medical Technician, State of NY
• Medical Self Help Graduate, Civil Defense/US DOD
• Ambulance/Fire/Rescue Tech, Bethlehem, PA
• American Red Cross - First Aid & Personal Safety Instructor
• American Heart Association - CPR Instructor
• Emergency Communicator, FCC Extra Class License WV1W